5% Asiimov
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.82
15.11 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $8.84 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.86%
6,006 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,045 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 100 | $257 396 gems | 29.1% | 55 | 60.5 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 100 | $107 165 gems | 12.2% | 70 | 60.5 | 1.16× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $102 158 gems | 11.6% | 60 | 60.5 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $87.95 135 gems | 10.0% | 80 | 60.5 | 1.32× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $52.44 80.68 gems | 5.9% | 51 | 60.5 | 0.84× |
| Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 10.0% | $8.59 13.22 gems | 9.7% | 585 | 604.5 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Old School (Lenticular)sticker · red | 20.0% | $3.01 4.63 gems | 6.8% | 1,201 | 1209.0 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Side Eyes (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 20.0% | $2.44 3.76 gems | 5.5% | 1,192 | 1209.0 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Econometer (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient | 20.0% | $2.37 3.64 gems | 5.4% | 1,250 | 1209.0 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | DJ Safecracker (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient | 25.0% | $1.36 2.09 gems | 3.8% | 1,501 | 1511.3 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $9.82 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 1.0%#eb4b4b 1.0%covert 3.0%extraordinary 30.0%red 20.0%Ancient 45.0%best hit —