5% Butterfly
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.83
82.81 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $48.44 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.95%
4,075 openings, odds method
Variance
16.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,175 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,415 2,177 gems | 29.2% | 37 | 41.7 | 0.89× |
| ★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,029 1,582 gems | 21.2% | 28 | 41.7 | 0.67× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,024 1,576 gems | 21.1% | 34 | 41.7 | 0.81× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $805 1,238 gems | 16.6% | 53 | 41.7 | 1.27× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $349 537 gems | 7.2% | 36 | 41.7 | 0.86× |
| PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 45.0% | $4.70 7.23 gems | 4.4% | 1,897 | 1878.7 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 50.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.2% | 2,090 | 2087.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertkick.com/alynnushgambles$53.8382.81 gems$1,4152,177 gems26.29x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.83 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%gold 1.0%#8847ff 45.0%#4b69ff 50.0%best hit $1,415 (26.29x)