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5percent-i-go-dumb

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.20
0.3 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
90.35%
2,226 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.06%±33.291,524 openings
7 days
91.19%±29.801,986 openings
30 days
90.35%±27.772,226 openings
since tracking started
90.35%±27.772,226 openings
56.0%90.0%124.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,52490.06%±33.3—sample
7d1,98691.19%±29.8—sample
30d2,22690.35%±27.8—sample
All2,22690.35%±27.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified$0.200.3 gems$22.6334.82 gems116.1x
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified$0.200.3 gems$22.6334.82 gems116.1x
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.200.3 gems$16.1524.84 gems82.80x
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.200.3 gems$16.1524.84 gems82.80x
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specFujicon$0.200.3 gems$16.1524.84 gems82.80x
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specFujicon$0.200.3 gems$16.1524.84 gems82.80x
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient$0.200.3 gems$13.3320.5 gems68.33x
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · AncientFujicon$0.200.3 gems$13.3320.5 gems68.33x
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient$0.200.3 gems$13.3320.5 gems68.33x
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient$0.200.3 gems$13.3320.5 gems68.33x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ffFujicon$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$0.200.3 gems$0.530.82 gems2.73x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$0.200.3 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $22.63 (116.1x)