5% Marble Fada

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$20.80
32 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
142.71%
98 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
18 openings · below min
7 days
64 openings · below min
30 days
98 openings · below min
since tracking started
98 openings · below min
-0.5%170.0%340.5%

Small sample. 98 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1871.03%±98.7—sample
7d64153.46%±186.5—sample
30d98142.71%±135.2—sample
All98142.71%±135.2—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$20.8032 gems$1,0081,550 gems48.44x
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$20.8032 gems$7691,183 gems36.98x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$20.8032 gems$166255 gems7.97x
Sealed Graffiti | BackstabgraffitiFlow$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$20.8032 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,008 (48.44x)