5% Rifler
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.73
36.51 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $21.36 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.83%
7,687 openings, odds method
Variance
33.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,807 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $1,599 2,460 gems | 37.4% | 33 | 39.0 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $796 1,225 gems | 18.6% | 33 | 39.0 | 0.85× |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert | 1 in 100 | $473 728 gems | 22.2% | 83 | 78.1 | 1.06× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $247 381 gems | 11.6% | 86 | 78.1 | 1.10× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $148 228 gems | 6.9% | 77 | 78.1 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $61.11 94.01 gems | 2.9% | 61 | 78.1 | 0.78× |
| P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 95.0% | $0.08 0.13 gems | 0.4% | 7,434 | 7416.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.73 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.5%covert 1.5%Covert 1.0%mil spec 1.0%#8847ff 95.0%best hit $1,599 (67.37x)