60% Profit
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$72.87
112 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $65.58 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.45%
153 openings, odds method
Variance
0.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
60.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (69.19% – 75.71%, 153 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $79.62 122 gems | 6.1% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 15.0% | $78.67 121 gems | 18.0% | 24 | 22.9 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert | 40.0% | $75.37 116 gems | 46.0% | 61 | 61.2 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $69.48 107 gems | 5.3% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $57.88 89.04 gems | 8.8% | 12 | 15.3 | 0.78× |
| MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $41.54 63.91 gems | 15.8% | 38 | 38.3 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.87112 gems$79.62122 gems1.09x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.87112 gems$79.62122 gems1.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $72.87 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 75.0%industrial 25.0%best hit —