6% Knife drop

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$20.51
31.55 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
108.29%
42 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
6 openings · below min
7 days
38 openings · below min
30 days
42 openings · below min
since tracking started
42 openings · below min
-0.5%333.8%668.0%

Small sample. 42 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6225.49%±441.9—sample
7d38119.68%±133.4—sample
30d42108.29%±121.0—sample
All42108.29%±121.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$20.5131.55 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$20.5131.55 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
★ Talon Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert$20.5131.55 gems$277427 gems13.53x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$20.5131.55 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.5131.55 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$20.5131.55 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$20.5131.55 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.5131.55 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.5131.55 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —