a-5percent-d

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.82
25.88 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
97.41%
324 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
84 openings · below min
7 days
324 openings · below min
30 days
324 openings · below min
since tracking started
324 openings · below min
8.0%126.3%244.5%

Small sample. 324 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h84126.10%±117.6—sample
7d32497.41%±43.1—sample
30d32497.41%±43.1—sample
All32497.41%±43.1—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic$16.8225.88 gems$649999 gems38.58x

Latest dropsnewest first

P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · grayDJs iLL$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$16.8225.88 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $649 (38.58x)