Price
$8.24
12.67 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $7.41 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.09%
1,623 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,627 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Bloody Miami Darryl | The Professionalsagent · master | 1 in 100 | $68.07 105 gems | 9.2% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× |
| Sir Bloody Loudmouth Darryl | The Professionalsagent · red | 1 in 59 | $47.27 72.72 gems | 10.8% | 36 | 27.7 | 1.30× |
| Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez | SEAL Frogmanagent · red | 1 in 50 | $33.36 51.32 gems | 9.0% | 33 | 32.5 | 1.01× |
| Number K | The Professionalsagent · superior | 1 in 33 | $25.97 39.95 gems | 10.5% | 57 | 48.8 | 1.17× |
| Sir Bloody Skullhead Darryl | The Professionalsagent · red | 1 in 20 | $22.15 34.07 gems | 14.9% | 73 | 81.4 | 0.90× |
| Medium Rare' Crasswater | Guerrilla Warfareagent | 10.0% | $10.61 16.32 gems | 14.3% | 145 | 162.7 | 0.89× |
| Special Agent Ava | FBIagent · master | 10.0% | $8.55 13.16 gems | 11.5% | 164 | 162.7 | 1.01× |
| Rezan The Ready | Sabreagent · superior | 20.0% | $2.56 3.94 gems | 6.9% | 330 | 325.4 | 1.01× |
| Dragomir | Sabreagent · violet | 22.3% | $2.07 3.19 gems | 6.2% | 372 | 362.8 | 1.03× |
| Maximus | Sabreagent · violet | 25.0% | $1.92 2.96 gems | 6.5% | 401 | 406.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.24 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmaster 11.0%red 8.7%superior 23.0%other 10.0%violet 47.3%best hit —