A4

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$28.36

43.63 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $25.52 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

106.40%

3,800 openings, odds method

Variance

176.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 500

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

298 openings · below min

7 days

88.46%±45.453,286 openings

30 days

106.40%±42.273,800 openings

since tracking started

106.40%±42.273,800 openings

-0.5%105.8%212.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	298	60.46%±150.9	—	odds
7d	3,286	88.46%±45.5	−0.1σ	odds
30d	3,800	106.40%±42.3	+0.8σ	odds
All	3,800	106.40%±42.3	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,884 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 500	$8,303 12,774 gems	65.1%	9	7.8	1.16×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,288 1,981 gems	10.1%	9	7.8	1.16×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$672 1,034 gems	5.3%	12	7.8	1.54×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$376 578 gems	2.9%	11	7.8	1.42×
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$256 394 gems	2.0%	7	7.8	0.90×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$192 296 gems	3.8%	18	19.4	0.93×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 200	$99.94 154 gems	2.0%	20	19.4	1.03×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$76.35 117 gems	1.5%	26	19.4	1.34×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$46.44 71.44 gems	0.9%	17	19.4	0.88×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	17.0%	$5.02 7.73 gems	3.3%	630	660.3	0.95×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$2.44 3.75 gems	2.9%	1,158	1165.2	0.99×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	50.0%	$0.15 0.23 gems	0.3%	1,967	1942.0	1.01×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$28.3643.63 gems$8,30312,774 gems292.8x2d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$28.3643.63 gems$8,30312,774 gems292.8x3d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$28.3643.63 gems$8,30312,774 gems292.8x6d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$28.3643.63 gems$8,30312,774 gems292.8x7d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandTurker Bin-Carlstan$28.3643.63 gems$8,30312,774 gems292.8x8d

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$28.3643.63 gems$1,2881,981 gems45.40x12m

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.3643.63 gems$0.150.23 gems0.01x12m

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$28.3643.63 gems$1,2881,981 gems45.40x12m

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.3643.63 gems$0.150.23 gems0.01x12m

M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$28.3643.63 gems$2.443.75 gems0.09x12m

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert$28.3643.63 gems$5.027.73 gems0.18x12m

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert☦︎Theta$28.3643.63 gems$5.027.73 gems0.18x12m

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.3643.63 gems$0.150.23 gems0.01x16m

M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$28.3643.63 gems$2.443.75 gems0.09x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$28.36	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.2%covert 18.7%classified 0.2%mil spec 0.2%restricted 30.2%industrial 0.5%milspec 50.0%best hit $8,303 (292.8x)