Abyss
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.43
97.59 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $57.09 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.34%
440 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 446 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $1,149 1,768 gems | 60.4% | 19 | 13.4 | 1.42× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $95.70 147 gems | 11.7% | 33 | 31.2 | 1.06× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $69.88 108 gems | 12.2% | 36 | 44.6 | 0.81× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $58.87 90.57 gems | 5.2% | 32 | 22.3 | 1.43× |
| USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $42.25 65 gems | 3.7% | 20 | 22.3 | 0.90× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $28.01 43.09 gems | 2.5% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× |
| M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $20.79 31.99 gems | 1.8% | 10 | 22.3 | 0.45× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $10.76 16.55 gems | 0.9% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $8.68 13.35 gems | 0.8% | 18 | 22.3 | 0.81× |
| CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 50.0% | $0.91 1.4 gems | 0.8% | 228 | 223.0 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$63.4397.59 gems$0.911.4 gems0.01x
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$63.4397.59 gems$58.8790.57 gems0.93x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $63.43 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 23.0%covert 22.0%industrial 5.0%#8847ff 50.0%best hit $1,149 (18.12x)