Aces
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,318.14
2,028 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,186.32 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.88%
412 openings, odds method
Variance
25.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 420 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 33 | $38.7K 59,604 gems | 98.0% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $89.55 138 gems | 1.3% | 60 | 71.4 | 0.84× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $18.52 28.49 gems | 0.3% | 92 | 84.0 | 1.10× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $17.04 26.21 gems | 0.3% | 86 | 84.0 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $7.79 11.99 gems | 0.1% | 88 | 84.0 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Ace Clutch Co. (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 20.0% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 0.0% | 85 | 84.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendaryHydrarewards.com$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3182,028 gems$38.7K59,604 gems29.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classifiedHydrarewards.com$1,3182,028 gems$7.7911.99 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,318 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 3.0%covert 17.0%classified 60.0%remarkable 20.0%best hit $38.7K (29.39x)