ADDICTED Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$61.09
93.99 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $54.98 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.82%
6,126 openings, odds method
Variance
24.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,204 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2,803 4,312 gems | 51.0% | 74 | 62.0 | 1.19× |
| ★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $737 1,134 gems | 13.4% | 54 | 62.0 | 0.87× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $555 854 gems | 20.2% | 123 | 124.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $552 850 gems | 5.0% | 28 | 31.0 | 0.90× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $325 501 gems | 5.9% | 62 | 62.0 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $154 236 gems | 4.2% | 111 | 93.1 | 1.19× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 93.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 0.3% | 5,752 | 5769.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $61.09 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.5%classified 0.5%consumer 93.0%best hit $2,803 (45.88x)