After Hours
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.17
40.26 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $23.55 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.01%
1,786 openings, odds method
Variance
18.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,817 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic | 1 in 400 | $1,394 2,144 gems | 14.8% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.32× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 133 | $1,015 1,561 gems | 32.3% | 17 | 13.6 | 1.25× |
| M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic | 1 in 25 | $120 184 gems | 20.3% | 69 | 72.7 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $53.96 83.02 gems | 11.5% | 107 | 90.9 | 1.18× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $27.54 42.37 gems | 5.8% | 76 | 90.9 | 0.84× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $15.75 24.23 gems | 6.7% | 172 | 181.7 | 0.95× |
| MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 15.0% | $6.10 9.39 gems | 3.9% | 267 | 272.6 | 0.98× |
| Nova | Smart Gun (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.79 4.29 gems | 2.4% | 362 | 363.4 | 1.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $1.95 3 gems | 1.7% | 373 | 363.4 | 1.03× |
| XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.80 1.23 gems | 0.7% | 368 | 363.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendaryDaxo$26.1740.26 gems$1,0151,561 gems38.77x
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendaryRewu$26.1740.26 gems$1,0151,561 gems38.77x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $26.17 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 4.3%legendary 0.8%rare 5.0%covert 5.0%classified 10.0%#8847ff 15.0%restricted 20.0%pink 20.0%violet 20.0%best hit $1,394 (53.25x)