All Risk
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.15
113 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $65.83 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.57%
1,531 openings, odds method
Variance
72.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,688 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $6,268 9,643 gems | 95.2% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $12.69 19.53 gems | 2.1% | 190 | 185.7 | 1.02× |
| SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 19.0% | $5.62 8.65 gems | 1.6% | 293 | 320.7 | 0.91× |
| MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common | 22.0% | $2.70 4.16 gems | 0.9% | 347 | 371.4 | 0.93× |
| SG 553 | Bleached (Factory New)weapon · Common | 18.0% | $0.40 0.61 gems | 0.1% | 321 | 303.8 | 1.06× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 11.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 0.0% | 210 | 185.7 | 1.13× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 13 | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 158 | 135.0 | 1.17× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 152 | 168.8 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGropus The Grand$73.15113 gems$6,2689,643 gems85.69x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $73.15 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%industrial 11.0%Consumer Grade 19.0%Common 40.0%consumer 29.0%best hit $6,268 (85.69x)