Amazon
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$404.52
622 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $364.07 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.54%
75 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 75 openings and 11.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 15.0% | $1,649 2,538 gems | 68.0% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.98× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 15.0% | $700 1,078 gems | 28.9% | 6 | 11.2 | 0.53× |
| MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $132 203 gems | 1.8% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $8.55 13.15 gems | 0.7% | 28 | 22.5 | 1.24× |
| P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert | 35.0% | $6.86 10.56 gems | 0.7% | 29 | 26.3 | 1.10× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryJackedGambles$405622 gems$1,6492,538 gems4.08x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendarySieras$405622 gems$1,6492,538 gems4.08x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryclepto holding$405622 gems$1,6492,538 gems4.08x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $405 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 15.0%Extraordinary 15.0%classified 35.0%covert 35.0%best hit $1,649 (4.08x)