Amphibious
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$123.54
190 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $111.19 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.19%
355 openings, odds method
Variance
10.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 361 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibiou (Factory New)gloves | 1 in 100 | $3,864 5,945 gems | 34.8% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| ★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $473 727 gems | 17.0% | 22 | 14.4 | 1.52× |
| ★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $241 371 gems | 21.7% | 36 | 36.1 | 1.00× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $164 253 gems | 14.8% | 34 | 36.1 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $23.65 36.39 gems | 6.4% | 108 | 108.3 | 1.00× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 45.0% | $13.29 20.45 gems | 5.4% | 158 | 162.5 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibiou (Factory New)glovesLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$124190 gems$3,8645,945 gems31.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $124 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 1.0%covert 44.0%classified 55.0%best hit $3,864 (31.28x)