Ancient Artifact
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$85.87
132 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $77.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.33%
885 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 913 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,625 2,500 gems | 21.0% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $910 1,400 gems | 47.1% | 43 | 36.5 | 1.18× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $235 361 gems | 15.2% | 42 | 45.7 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $60.20 92.62 gems | 3.9% | 40 | 45.7 | 0.88× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 10.0% | $37.70 58 gems | 4.9% | 111 | 91.3 | 1.22× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $18.69 28.75 gems | 3.6% | 127 | 136.9 | 0.93× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $12.09 18.6 gems | 2.3% | 135 | 136.9 | 0.99× |
| SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $5.84 8.98 gems | 1.1% | 147 | 136.9 | 1.07× |
| MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 30.0% | $2.07 3.18 gems | 0.8% | 260 | 273.9 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $85.87 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%red 5.0%industrial 15.0%restricted 15.0%classified 15.0%Mythical 30.0%best hit $1,625 (18.92x)