Animals
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.58
45.5 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.62 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.36%
2,584 openings, odds method
Variance
48.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,614 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 200 | $2,786 4,286 gems | 52.3% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $510 784 gems | 28.7% | 38 | 39.2 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $50.13 77.13 gems | 5.7% | 69 | 78.4 | 0.88× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $11.62 17.88 gems | 6.5% | 381 | 392.1 | 0.97× |
| UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $5.08 7.81 gems | 3.8% | 559 | 522.8 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.13 4.81 gems | 2.3% | 546 | 522.8 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.69 1.06 gems | 0.5% | 470 | 522.8 | 0.90× |
| Sticker | Toy Tigersticker · Rare | 20.0% | $0.07 0.1 gems | 0.0% | 540 | 522.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covertThomas the termonuclear bomb$29.5845.5 gems$11.6217.88 gems0.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.58 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.5%covert 19.5%classified 20.0%restricted 20.0%Mythical 20.0%Rare 20.0%best hit $2,786 (94.19x)