Apocalypse
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.03
52.35 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $30.62 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.41%
1,018 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,042 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $446 686 gems | 29.1% | 18 | 20.8 | 0.86× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $202 310 gems | 26.3% | 43 | 41.7 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $79.18 122 gems | 10.3% | 39 | 41.7 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $46.62 71.72 gems | 15.2% | 112 | 104.2 | 1.07× |
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $19.30 29.69 gems | 12.6% | 207 | 208.4 | 0.99× |
| MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $5.36 8.24 gems | 5.2% | 318 | 312.6 | 1.02× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $1.16 1.78 gems | 1.1% | 305 | 312.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedhttps://kick.com/waxumfriendly$34.0352.35 gems$46.6271.72 gems1.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.03 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%restricted 10.0%#8847ff 20.0%mil spec 30.0%industrial 30.0%best hit —