Arcade
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.11
12.47 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $7.29 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.42%
3,660 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,718 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $125 192 gems | 34.2% | 82 | 74.4 | 1.10× |
| AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $40.05 61.61 gems | 16.5% | 123 | 111.5 | 1.10× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red | 10.0% | $19.48 29.97 gems | 26.7% | 362 | 371.8 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.58 10.13 gems | 9.0% | 378 | 371.8 | 1.02× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $2.30 3.54 gems | 4.7% | 559 | 557.7 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.65 2.54 gems | 3.4% | 539 | 557.7 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.35 2.07 gems | 2.8% | 575 | 557.7 | 1.03× |
| MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 30.0% | $0.64 0.99 gems | 2.6% | 1,100 | 1115.4 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.11 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.0%classified 13.0%red 10.0%restricted 45.0%#8847ff 30.0%best hit —