Arctic Pulse Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.05
58.54 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $34.25 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.43%
823 openings, odds method
Variance
18.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 832 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $3,200 4,922 gems | 9.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $2,057 3,164 gems | 12.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 500 | $1,242 1,910 gems | 7.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $553 851 gems | 24.2% | 11 | 12.5 | 0.88× |
| P250 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $174 267 gems | 15.2% | 28 | 25.0 | 1.12× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $37.69 57.99 gems | 11.0% | 83 | 83.2 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $20.84 32.06 gems | 9.1% | 120 | 124.8 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $10.36 15.94 gems | 4.5% | 126 | 124.8 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon | 15.0% | $5.92 9.1 gems | 2.6% | 123 | 124.8 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 40.0% | $4.02 6.18 gems | 4.7% | 340 | 332.8 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $38.05 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 1.7%#ffd700 0.2%mil spec 18.0%Legendary 25.0%uncommon 15.0%#d32ee6 40.0%best hit $1,242 (32.63x)