Ascension Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$76.09
117 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $68.48 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.20%
193 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$76.09117 gems$1,0401,600 gems13.67x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$76.09117 gems$619953 gems8.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryCrown$76.09117 gems$20.6031.69 gems0.27x
★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryfarlopero peek$76.09117 gems$47.5973.21 gems0.63x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $76.09 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 97.0%legendary 3.0%best hit $1,820 (23.92x)