Ashen Crown
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.11
66.32 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $38.79 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.92%
296 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 50 | $580 893 gems | 29.9% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $393 605 gems | 20.3% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $164 252 gems | 8.4% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $103 159 gems | 5.3% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $87.75 135 gems | 4.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $47.06 72.4 gems | 12.1% | 27 | 29.6 | 0.91× |
| G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $29.59 45.53 gems | 7.6% | 41 | 29.6 | 1.39× |
| UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $17.28 26.58 gems | 4.5% | 31 | 29.6 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $11.04 16.99 gems | 2.8% | 26 | 29.6 | 0.88× |
| PP-Bizon | High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $6.21 9.56 gems | 1.6% | 39 | 29.6 | 1.32× |
| CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $2.76 4.24 gems | 2.8% | 105 | 118.4 | 0.89× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $43.11 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 2.0%extraordinary 2.0%covert 2.0%pink 2.0%classified 2.0%restricted 50.0%mil spec 10.0%industrial 10.0%violet 10.0%#d32ee6 10.0%best hit $580 (13.47x)