Asiimov Dream
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.88
9.05 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $5.29 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.81%
6,735 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,795 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $139 215 gems | 52.7% | 138 | 135.9 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $35.49 54.6 gems | 6.7% | 66 | 67.9 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $17.43 26.81 gems | 3.3% | 59 | 67.9 | 0.87× |
| MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $9.51 14.63 gems | 7.2% | 294 | 271.8 | 1.08× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $3.93 6.05 gems | 5.2% | 502 | 475.6 | 1.06× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 35.0% | $1.71 2.63 gems | 11.3% | 2,366 | 2378.2 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 50.0% | $1.44 2.21 gems | 13.6% | 3,370 | 3397.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.88 | 89.93% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%classified 93.0%mil spec 4.0%best hit —