Assassin
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.39
72.91 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $42.65 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.61%
189 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 189 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,814 2,790 gems | 4.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 10 | $154 236 gems | 35.7% | 13 | 18.7 | 0.69× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $75.43 116 gems | 53.1% | 57 | 56.7 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $25.64 39.45 gems | 3.0% | 16 | 9.4 | 1.69× |
| USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $7.40 11.39 gems | 2.6% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× |
| R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $2.41 3.7 gems | 1.1% | 44 | 37.8 | 1.16× |
| CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 20.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 0.3% | 33 | 37.8 | 0.87× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $47.39 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%restricted 9.9%classified 35.0%industrial 15.0%consumer 20.0%Uncommon 20.0%best hit $1,814 (38.27x)