Avalanche
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.11
92.48 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $54.10 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.49%
228 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 20.0% | $246 379 gems | 91.0% | 52 | 45.6 | 1.14× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $34.60 53.23 gems | 3.2% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| P2000 | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $13.66 21.02 gems | 1.3% | 5 | 11.4 | 0.44× |
| P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $11.82 18.18 gems | 1.1% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 15.0% | $7.01 10.78 gems | 1.9% | 32 | 34.2 | 0.94× |
| Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.93 2.97 gems | 0.5% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× |
| CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 35.0% | $1.44 2.22 gems | 0.9% | 80 | 79.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $60.11 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 10.0%#87c7ff 15.0%restricted 15.0%light blue 35.0%best hit —