AWP Heaven
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$532.99
820 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $479.69 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.57%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,760 4,246 gems | 28.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,521 3,878 gems | 26.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,415 3,715 gems | 25.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,787 2,749 gems | 18.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified | 80.0% | $7.01 10.78 gems | 1.2% | 19 | 19.2 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $533 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%classified 80.0%best hit $2,760 (5.18x)