AWP Main
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.57
13.18 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $7.71 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.27%
3,720 openings, odds method
Variance
130.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,738 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert247ZAZA67FULLBOXED$8.5713.18 gems$9,12714,042 gems1,065x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.57 | 89.98% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 13.0%red 11.0%Legendary 12.0%classified 8.0%restricted 21.0%#8847ff 20.0%industrial 15.0%best hit $9,127 (1,065x)