Azure Skies

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$117.27

180 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $105.54 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.39%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

30 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

59.5%89.5%119.5%

Small sample. 48 openings and 10.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	30	89.68%±29.4	—	odds
30d	48	94.39%±23.2	—	odds
All	48	94.39%±23.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$443 682 gems	12.6%	2	1.4	1.39×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$347 534 gems	9.9%	1	1.4	0.69×
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 33	$347 534 gems	9.9%	2	1.4	1.39×
Sticker \| Winged Defusersticker · High Grade	1 in 33	$291 448 gems	8.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$114 175 gems	5.4%	3	2.4	1.25×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$106 164 gems	5.0%	4	2.4	1.67×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$90.32 139 gems	4.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$90.01 138 gems	4.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$76.10 117 gems	7.2%	7	4.8	1.46×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified	15.0%	$63.26 97.33 gems	9.0%	10	7.2	1.39×
Sticker \| EliGE (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · #d32ce6	20.0%	$60.31 92.79 gems	11.4%	7	9.6	0.73×
Sticker \| Team Liquid (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · violet	23.0%	$58.64 90.21 gems	12.8%	8	11.0	0.72×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.