Bad Outcome
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.76
44.24 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $25.88 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.57%
139 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $5,102 7,849 gems | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $72.19 111 gems | 41.8% | 16 | 21.7 | 0.74× |
| MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $52.68 81.04 gems | 50.9% | 50 | 36.2 | 1.38× |
| M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $8.62 13.26 gems | 3.3% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $3.15 4.85 gems | 1.2% | 12 | 14.5 | 0.83× |
| SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.43 2.2 gems | 0.6% | 21 | 14.5 | 1.45× |
| Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 0.2% | 15 | 21.7 | 0.69× |
| UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 17 | 21.8 | 0.78× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.76 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%mil spec 30.0%#4b69ff 25.0%industrial 20.0%restricted 10.0%consumer 15.0%best hit —