Ball Knowledge
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.01
35.4 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $20.70 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.18%
1,667 openings, odds method
Variance
11.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,715 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical | 1 in 50 | $507 780 gems | 49.0% | 36 | 34.3 | 1.05× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Minimal Wear)gloves · rare | 1 in 50 | $201 309 gems | 19.4% | 29 | 34.3 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $92.30 142 gems | 8.9% | 39 | 34.3 | 1.14× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $58.60 90.15 gems | 5.7% | 44 | 34.3 | 1.28× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $32.03 49.28 gems | 3.1% | 33 | 34.3 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $22.03 33.89 gems | 5.3% | 90 | 85.8 | 1.05× |
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $9.85 15.15 gems | 2.4% | 79 | 85.8 | 0.92× |
| Operation Riptide Case Keyother | 80.0% | $1.62 2.49 gems | 6.3% | 1,365 | 1372.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · MythicalBandit enardo.gg$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · MythicalXleSwaet$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · MythicalBB $500 LB$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythicalgooby™$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical$23.0135.4 gems$507780 gems22.03x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $23.01 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 2.0%rare 2.0%classified 12.0%covert 4.0%other 80.0%best hit $507 (22.03x)