Baller Knife 50-50
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$498.00
766 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $448.20 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.99%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,119 1,722 gems | 12.5% | 4 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 20 | $1,080 1,661 gems | 12.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 15.0% | $924 1,422 gems | 30.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 25.0% | $798 1,227 gems | 44.5% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $1.54 2.37 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $1.09 1.68 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9 | 10.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$498766 gems$1,0801,661 gems2.17x
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$498766 gems$7981,227 gems1.60x
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$498766 gems$7981,227 gems1.60x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$498766 gems$7981,227 gems1.60x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $498 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 45.0%#ffd700 5.0%pink 5.0%mil spec 5.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%Uncommon 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%#B0C3D9 10.0%best hit $1,119 (2.25x)