Bank Heist

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$174.82

269 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $157.33 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.44%

56 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

50 openings · below min

30 days

56 openings · below min

since tracking started

56 openings · below min

46.0%75.8%105.5%

Small sample. 56 openings and 22.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	50	74.32%±27.8	—	odds
30d	56	78.44%±26.3	—	odds
All	56	78.44%±26.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	40.0%	$370 570 gems	94.2%	19	22.4	0.85×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$95.50 147 gems	3.0%	4	2.8	1.43×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · SMGs	1 in 20	$66.54 102 gems	2.1%	3	2.8	1.07×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$4.58 7.04 gems	0.4%	7	8.4	0.83×
P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	10.0%	$2.13 3.28 gems	0.1%	9	5.6	1.61×
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	10.0%	$0.85 1.3 gems	0.1%	2	5.6	0.36×
MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$0.64 0.98 gems	0.1%	12	8.4	1.43×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.