Banksy
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.92
12.18 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $7.12 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.15%
8,216 openings, odds method
Variance
21.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,359 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $571 878 gems | 16.0% | 17 | 16.7 | 1.02× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $304 468 gems | 21.4% | 45 | 41.8 | 1.08× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Minimal Wear)gloves · #ffd700 | 1 in 100 | $127 196 gems | 17.8% | 95 | 83.6 | 1.14× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 77 | $72.77 112 gems | 13.3% | 93 | 108.7 | 0.86× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $61.13 94.05 gems | 12.9% | 136 | 125.4 | 1.08× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 18 | $14.95 23 gems | 11.5% | 436 | 459.7 | 0.95× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Clutch Kinggraffiti · Legendary | 20.0% | $1.09 1.68 gems | 3.1% | 1,706 | 1671.8 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $0.95 1.46 gems | 2.7% | 1,636 | 1671.8 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $0.40 0.62 gems | 1.1% | 1,697 | 1671.8 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Street Artist (Glitter)sticker · 8 | 30.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.2% | 2,498 | 2507.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.92 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed8 30.0%covert 3.0%extraordinary 0.5%#ffd700 1.0%Legendary 25.5%classified 20.0%Rare 20.0%best hit $571 (72.09x)