Barb Wire
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.68
42.58 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $24.91 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.07%
359 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 359 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $269 414 gems | 21.6% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $216 333 gems | 17.4% | 14 | 7.2 | 1.95× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 50 | $174 268 gems | 14.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $155 238 gems | 12.4% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $101 155 gems | 8.1% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $94.34 145 gems | 7.6% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 50 | $67.81 104 gems | 5.4% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| Tec-9 | Cut Out (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 86.0% | $3.92 6.03 gems | 13.5% | 303 | 308.7 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.68 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%covert knife 2.0%Immortal 2.0%#ffd700 2.0%#4b69ff 86.0%best hit —