Battle Hardened V2
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.25
133 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $77.62 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.47%
997 openings, odds method
Variance
10.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,055 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,668 2,567 gems | 43.0% | 23 | 21.1 | 1.09× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,028 1,581 gems | 26.5% | 17 | 21.1 | 0.81× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 33 | $513 789 gems | 19.8% | 36 | 31.6 | 1.14× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $197 303 gems | 7.6% | 28 | 31.6 | 0.88× |
| M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $4.52 6.96 gems | 1.7% | 301 | 316.5 | 0.95× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 60.0% | $1.74 2.67 gems | 1.3% | 650 | 633.0 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertST$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertMpiXelss$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertconq$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$86.25133 gems$1,6682,567 gems19.35x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $86.25 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 34.0%gold 3.0%classified 3.0%mil spec 60.0%best hit $1,668 (19.35x)