Battle of Cases
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.40
5.23 gems
Advertised RTP
89.86%
EV $3.05 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.30%
6,992 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,213 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 200 | $60.71 93.4 gems | 9.9% | 44 | 36.1 | 1.22× |
| eSports 2013 Casecontainer · base | 1 in 100 | $29.13 44.82 gems | 9.5% | 90 | 72.1 | 1.25× |
| Operation Bravo Casecontainer · base | 1 in 50 | $22.87 35.19 gems | 15.0% | 142 | 144.3 | 0.98× |
| Operation Hydra Casecontainer · base | 1 in 50 | $11.33 17.43 gems | 7.4% | 130 | 144.3 | 0.90× |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2other · Base Grade | 1 in 22 | $5.64 8.67 gems | 8.3% | 314 | 324.6 | 0.97× |
| eSports 2013 Winter Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 20 | $4.80 7.38 gems | 7.9% | 363 | 360.7 | 1.01× |
| eSports 2014 Summer Casecontainer · base | 1 in 20 | $4.43 6.82 gems | 7.3% | 384 | 360.7 | 1.06× |
| Glove Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 20 | $3.70 5.69 gems | 6.1% | 382 | 360.7 | 1.06× |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 20 | $3.11 4.79 gems | 5.1% | 337 | 360.7 | 0.93× |
| Operation Broken Fang Casecontainer · base | 1 in 20 | $2.45 3.77 gems | 4.0% | 354 | 360.7 | 0.98× |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 20 | $1.95 3 gems | 3.2% | 362 | 360.7 | 1.00× |
| Shattered Web Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 20 | $1.83 2.81 gems | 3.0% | 373 | 360.7 | 1.03× |
| Chroma Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 20 | $1.66 2.56 gems | 2.7% | 360 | 360.7 | 1.00× |
| Chroma 2 Casecontainer · base | 1 in 20 | $1.35 2.08 gems | 2.2% | 350 | 360.7 | 0.97× |
| Operation Wildfire Casecontainer · base | 1 in 20 | $1.25 1.92 gems | 2.0% | 338 | 360.7 | 0.94× |
| Revolver Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 13 | $0.96 1.48 gems | 2.4% | 538 | 541.0 | 0.99× |
| Dreams & Nightmares Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 13 | $0.55 0.85 gems | 1.4% | 547 | 541.0 | 1.01× |
| Gallery Casecontainer · common | 1 in 13 | $0.40 0.61 gems | 1.0% | 543 | 541.0 | 1.00× |
| Prisma Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 13 | $0.36 0.55 gems | 0.9% | 532 | 541.0 | 0.98× |
| Clutch Casecontainer · Base Grade | 10.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.8% | 730 | 721.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.40 | 89.86% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedBase Grade 67.5%base 25.0%common 7.5%best hit —