Be My Valentine
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.08
6.28 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $3.67 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.27%
8,442 openings, odds method
Variance
19.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,744 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 400 | $325 500 gems | 22.1% | 23 | 21.9 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $56.26 86.55 gems | 15.3% | 85 | 87.4 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 80 | $35.20 54.16 gems | 12.0% | 105 | 109.3 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $24.38 37.5 gems | 13.3% | 158 | 174.9 | 0.90× |
| CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $8.42 12.96 gems | 11.5% | 451 | 437.2 | 1.03× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $6.29 9.68 gems | 8.6% | 430 | 437.2 | 0.98× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $3.81 5.86 gems | 5.2% | 501 | 437.2 | 1.15× |
| MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.5% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 5.2% | 912 | 918.1 | 0.99× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heartgraffiti | 70.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 6.9% | 6,079 | 6120.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New)weaponm1sa$4.086.28 gems$325500 gems79.62x
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New)weaponparis0743$4.086.28 gems$325500 gems79.62x
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New)weaponStariks$4.086.28 gems$325500 gems79.62x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.08 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 70.2%classified 12.3%covert 2.0%red 5.0%mil spec 10.5%best hit $325 (79.62x)