Beaver Nickle
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$54.95
84.54 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $49.45 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.01%
767 openings, odds method
Variance
12.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 782 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,452 2,233 gems | 14.7% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $1,254 1,929 gems | 12.7% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,127 1,735 gems | 11.4% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 200 | $1,032 1,587 gems | 10.4% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 200 | $832 1,280 gems | 8.4% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 29 | $440 677 gems | 31.1% | 33 | 27.4 | 1.21× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $139 213 gems | 11.2% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Rat Packsticker · High Grade | 90.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 703 | 703.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$54.9584.54 gems$1,4522,233 gems26.42x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$54.9584.54 gems$1,4522,233 gems26.42x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$54.9584.54 gems$1,2541,929 gems22.81x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$54.9584.54 gems$1,2541,929 gems22.81x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$54.9584.54 gems$1,0321,587 gems18.78x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$54.9584.54 gems$1,0321,587 gems18.78x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryKogo$54.9584.54 gems$1,0321,587 gems18.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $54.95 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%extraordinary 0.5%legendary 0.5%epic 0.5%classified 3.5%Classified 4.0%High Grade 90.0%best hit $1,452 (26.42x)