BeeBobble
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$203.00
312 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $182.69 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.63%
57 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 57 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,629 2,506 gems | 44.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $591 910 gems | 16.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.19× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare | 10.0% | $373 574 gems | 20.4% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $236 364 gems | 12.9% | 11 | 6.7 | 1.64× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 33 | $97.11 149 gems | 1.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $66.56 102 gems | 1.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 33 | $45.31 69.7 gems | 0.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| UMP-45 | Caramel (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 33 | $28.10 43.23 gems | 0.5% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× |
| MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 33.0% | $8.63 13.28 gems | 1.6% | 20 | 22.1 | 0.90× |
| P250 | Hive (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $3.14 4.83 gems | 0.4% | 15 | 16.8 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $203 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%remarkable 5.0%rare 10.0%#d32ee6 3.0%classified 3.0%#eb4b4b 3.0%consumer 3.0%mil spec 33.0%milspec 25.0%best hit $1,629 (8.03x)