BeeHive
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5,794.01
8,914 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5,214.56 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.38%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 20.0% | $26K 40,000 gems | 99.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $36.02 55.42 gems | 0.1% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $35.35 54.39 gems | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $11.69 17.99 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $10.13 15.59 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $3.14 4.83 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5,794 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 20.0%covert 30.0%classified 30.0%violet 20.0%best hit —