Believers Only

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.25
5 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
66.79%
486 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
88 openings · below min
7 days
464 openings · below min
30 days
486 openings · below min
since tracking started
486 openings · below min
-0.5%81.5%163.5%

Small sample. 486 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8881.00%±81.9—sample
7d46469.73%±35.4—sample
30d48666.79%±33.8—sample
All48666.79%±33.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$3.255 gems$3.895.98 gems1.20x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High GradeMegitsune$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x
Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade$3.255 gems$0.160.24 gems0.05x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —