Biba Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$99.96
154 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $89.96 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
120.98%
393 openings, odds method
Variance
13.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 393 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 1,000 | $7,635 11,746 gems | 8.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $6,883 10,590 gems | 7.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 333 | $1,584 2,437 gems | 5.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $632 972 gems | 17.6% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 33 | $478 735 gems | 15.9% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $391 601 gems | 26.1% | 14 | 23.6 | 0.59× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $165 253 gems | 5.5% | 15 | 11.8 | 1.27× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $163 250 gems | 9.0% | 15 | 19.6 | 0.76× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 80.0% | $5.09 7.83 gems | 4.5% | 322 | 314.4 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$99.96154 gems$7,63511,746 gems76.38x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedThomas the termonuclear bomb$99.96154 gems$632972 gems6.32x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $99.96 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.2%epic 0.3%classified 2.5%rare 3.0%restricted 3.0%red 5.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $7,635 (76.38x)