Big City
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$67.88
104 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $61.09 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.85%
449 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 449 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $454 698 gems | 37.1% | 21 | 22.4 | 0.94× |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $209 321 gems | 34.1% | 54 | 44.9 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $97.65 150 gems | 24.0% | 66 | 67.3 | 0.98× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $24.41 37.55 gems | 2.0% | 27 | 22.4 | 1.20× |
| SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $5.71 8.79 gems | 1.4% | 61 | 67.3 | 0.91× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $3.06 4.7 gems | 0.8% | 65 | 67.3 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $1.26 1.94 gems | 0.3% | 66 | 67.3 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.88 1.36 gems | 0.3% | 89 | 89.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$67.88104 gems$209321 gems3.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $67.88 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.0%classified 30.0%#4b69ff 15.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit —