Big Fish
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.82
36.65 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $21.44 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.99%
523 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
36.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 527 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $182 280 gems | 2.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 27 | $56.51 86.94 gems | 9.8% | 25 | 19.5 | 1.28× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 16.0% | $37.35 57.46 gems | 27.9% | 91 | 84.3 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $34.59 53.22 gems | 22.6% | 75 | 73.8 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $31.22 48.03 gems | 14.6% | 50 | 52.7 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 20.0% | $24.08 37.05 gems | 22.5% | 113 | 105.4 | 1.07× |
| Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.1% | 49 | 52.7 | 0.93× |
| Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.1% | 68 | 79.0 | 0.86× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 55 | 58.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$23.8236.65 gems$37.3557.46 gems1.57x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$23.8236.65 gems$37.3557.46 gems1.57x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$23.8236.65 gems$37.3557.46 gems1.57x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$23.8236.65 gems$37.3557.46 gems1.57x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$23.8236.65 gems$24.0837.05 gems1.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $23.82 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 28.0%Classified 16.0%Legendary 20.0%industrial 21.0%Rare 15.0%best hit —