Billionaire
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$965.06
1,485 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $868.55 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.54%
137 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 143 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $13.8K 21,200 gems | 47.6% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $2,362 3,634 gems | 19.0% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1,723 2,650 gems | 19.8% | 14 | 14.3 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $267 411 gems | 1.5% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $154 237 gems | 2.7% | 24 | 21.4 | 1.12× |
| AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 15.0% | $151 232 gems | 2.6% | 15 | 21.4 | 0.70× |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $147 226 gems | 2.5% | 25 | 21.4 | 1.17× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 30.0% | $122 187 gems | 4.2% | 45 | 42.9 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMochi$9651,485 gems$2,3623,634 gems2.45x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKick.com/Romix$9651,485 gems$2,3623,634 gems2.45x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMochi$9651,485 gems$2,3623,634 gems2.45x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $965 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 10.0%covert 15.0%classified 15.0%#d32ee6 15.0%restricted 15.0%red 30.0%best hit $13.8K (14.28x)