Bish Bash Bosh!
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.49
20.75 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $12.14 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.45%
2,545 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,601 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $566 871 gems | 9.3% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.73× |
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 100 | $131 202 gems | 10.8% | 23 | 26.0 | 0.88× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 40 | $92.77 143 gems | 19.1% | 67 | 65.0 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Orion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $73.45 113 gems | 15.1% | 63 | 65.0 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $69.73 107 gems | 14.4% | 59 | 65.0 | 0.91× |
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $58.40 89.84 gems | 12.0% | 79 | 65.0 | 1.21× |
| Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violet | 13.8% | $6.43 9.89 gems | 7.3% | 335 | 358.9 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Bish (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 25.0% | $2.28 3.51 gems | 4.7% | 634 | 650.3 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Bosh (Holo)sticker · violet | 25.0% | $1.79 2.75 gems | 3.7% | 654 | 650.3 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 25.0% | $1.71 2.63 gems | 3.5% | 678 | 650.3 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.49 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.7%epic 1.0%rare 2.5%violet 38.8%Remarkable 25.0%remarkable 25.0%best hit $566 (42.00x)