Black and Yellow

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$180.23

277 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $162.20 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.76%

88 openings, sample method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

42 openings · below min

30 days

88 openings · below min

since tracking started

88 openings · below min

56.5%96.3%136.0%

Small sample. 88 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	96.36%±39.0	—	odds
7d	42	101.10%±14.7	—	odds
30d	88	89.76%±10.4	—	sample
All	88	89.76%±10.4	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	10.0%	$349 538 gems	21.5%	10	8.8	1.14×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$243 374 gems	15.0%	5	8.8	0.57×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$235 361 gems	14.5%	9	8.8	1.02×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	20.0%	$182 280 gems	22.5%	20	17.6	1.14×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	25.0%	$95.06 146 gems	14.7%	21	22.0	0.95×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$77.13 119 gems	11.9%	23	22.0	1.05×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.