Black Beard
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$87.04
134 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $78.33 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.45%
339 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 351 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 50 | $1,268 1,951 gems | 32.4% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.85× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $552 850 gems | 21.2% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $293 450 gems | 18.7% | 21 | 17.5 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $114 175 gems | 14.5% | 48 | 35.1 | 1.37× |
| Nova | Baroque Orange (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $56.85 87.46 gems | 7.3% | 17 | 35.1 | 0.48× |
| Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $17.93 27.58 gems | 4.6% | 62 | 70.2 | 0.88× |
| R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $3.18 4.89 gems | 1.0% | 86 | 87.7 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Sharks Esports (Foil) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Legendary | 25.0% | $1.23 1.89 gems | 0.4% | 101 | 87.8 | 1.15× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$87.04134 gems$1,2681,951 gems14.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlHelqxz$87.04134 gems$1,2681,951 gems14.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$87.04134 gems$1,2681,951 gems14.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlRMV1207$87.04134 gems$1,2681,951 gems14.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$87.04134 gems$1,2681,951 gems14.57x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$87.04134 gems$1,2681,951 gems14.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumerCodeWILDCS 2K LB$87.04134 gems$3.184.89 gems0.04x
Sticker | Sharks Esports (Foil) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Legendary$87.04134 gems$1.231.89 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $87.04 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 10.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 25.0%Legendary 25.0%best hit $1,268 (14.57x)